Calm before the storm

(First published on January 22, 2009)
Pakistan is on the boil again so expect an upheaval in Islamabad or alternatively in Kashmir. Just remember where you read it first. In the name of imaginary ghosts, the Pakistani Army often snatches the reins from the civilian authorities. This time the civilian government of Asif Ali Zardari has quietly surrendered the decision-making powers to General Ashfaq Kiyani, chiefly because the spectre may not be just spectre. With jingoism replacing patriotism, the Pakistan media, excepting a few honourable newspapers, have gone berserk. Indian media, not that they are unaffected by the same post-Mumbai 26/11, are a tea party compared to the kind of warmongering across the border.

The popular mood in Pakistan is that its enemies have encircled the country, the the words of former Army Chief Mirza Aslam Beg.
And this thime, the fear might have some basis. The Day the Big O of the US entered the Oval Office, he signalled he would walk that talk. The first step was to link economic aid to Pakistan with progress in the battle with the Taliban. President Obama will substantially raise the millions in aid and seek in return American force’s entry into Pakistani territory. The dangling dollar will be too good to resist. And inviting Americans into Pakistan too risky. A country dependent on aid cannot refuse hard cash in the time of global liquidity crunch. The European Union has already put Islamabad on a watch. Not only does the West no longer hyphenate India and Pakistan but also India’s democracy and economic power has become preferable to a country ready to be run over by extremists. The latter being the only reason the world wants to help Pakistan. A mad mullah with nukes is the world’s most dreaded nightmare.

It’s not a coincidence that the day Obama took oath on the Capitol, US Central Command chief David Petraeus dropped by to see the Army Chief and the President of Pakistan. He was on his way to Kabul from Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Kyrgyzstan. He was there to sign new deals to create a new supply route to Afghanistan. The present supply route from Peshawar is often attacked by the Taliban. Pakistan has failed to stop these attacks. The US and Nato forces have avoided overtly taking on the Pakistan Army because they depend on Pakistan for crucial supply. That dependence is ending soon. American drones will not only continue pounding the frontier with missiles but the attacks will be deeper into the Pakistani territory. Mr Zardari will cry violation of Pakistan’s sovereignty. Not many would listen. Washington and Moscow could not see eye-to-eye just last year when Russia had invaded Georgia. Today, Russia is joining forces with the US. The groundwork for Obama’s promised Surge in Afghanistan is already off the ground.

A day after Obama's first day in office, Afghanistan and India began working on a new strategy to fight terror that originates in Pakistan. The greater cooperation between India and Israel and India and France is complicating things further. China remains the sole ally standing by Pakistan in trouble but China has not been of much economic help. And the US wants Pakistanis to push forward in an internecine war inside Pakistani territory, home to a large number of Taliban and Al-qaeda operatives and, if one believes US intelligence, probably Osama bin Laden. Pakistan claims to have killed many extremists. But till the day the frontier is safe for Al-Qaeda to operate from, the US may not ease pressure. Intelligence reports suggesting that Osama’s son, hiding in Iran till recently, has shifted base to the Pakistani safe haven does not help Islamabad.

New Delhi has been relentless in its diplomatic offensive since November 26. The often contradictory signals from Islamabad have left the world confounded as an overwhelming majority of nations want Pakistan to stop talking and start doing. But doing away with its most potent non-state weapon is something the Pakistani Army cannot think of. Hence Pakistan may create a bigger problem to make the present problem smaller. When the world is asking for action against terror, create a situation where everybody first wants you to return to democracy. You get the hint. The other option is of igniting Kashmir. But Kashmir has voted for hope. This may not be the right time for Pakistan to utter the K-word. This however may be the right time for India to demand the other part of Kashmir under Pakistani occupation. We as a country have given up our claim on the other part of Kashmir, while Pakistan has continued with its rhetorical stance. Any idea why India insists on having Muzaffarabad only on its maps?